Stockholm Public Transport Administration - LCC analysis reveals socio-economic savings

Stockholm’s metro system is being prepared for a fully automatic operation with driverless trains. Systecon has provided decision support, including an LCC analysis of platform barriers, that is an important contribution to this paradigm shift. This is expected to save both lives and millions of Swedish crowns each year.

The metro's red line, one of three Stockholm metro lines, is currently being upgraded in the form of new vehicles, traffic management system and maintenance depot. Systecon is deeply involved in many aspects of this extensive project. Among other areas Systecon has been involved in Stockholm’s Public Transport Administration's investigation into the conditions and consequences of introducing a fully automated operation that deliver concrete benefits.

A fully automatic operation provides better service to travelers as well as reduced operating costs by running short trains more often without increasing the cost. When the trains lack drivers on board to monitor the journey, however, measures are required to ensure public safety on the platforms. The benefits of such measures can also improve today’s traffic situation in which track incursions and accidents in the form of casualties and extensive disruptions can lead to high annual costs. The Public Transport Administration has investigated and tested a number of different systems for securing the platforms. In total, three main options have been evaluated: conventional barriers, alarm systems and security screens with vertical opening. Systecon's LCC analyses show that security screens with wider openings, which are compatible with the different types of metro trains, is the most cost-effective solution.

The method Systecon has used is essentially based on classical LCC methodology with an extended method for evaluating the impact on safety that barriers would generate. This method is based, in turn, on the evaluation model used in connection with socio-economic analyses to evaluate the benefit of reducing the number of deaths and serious injuries. Additionally, an assessment of the savings of the expected reduction in service disruptions has been included in the cost analysis.

The work has included a comprehensive survey of events and risks in the metro, which is subsequently analyzed and documented. Extensive testing has been carried out of the various primary options using physical installations at various metro stations. Experiences from other metro systems with automatic operation and platform barriers have been studied. A survey of the specific conditions that apply to the Stockholm metro and in what way the traveler behavior is different from other countries has also been performed. Finally, the work has undergone an external quality review.

Illustration: Evaluation model

In March 2016, the Public Transport Administration published its investigation report on a fully automatic operation on the red line. The report concludes that platform barriers are the single largest part of the additional investment of 1.6 billion SEK that is needed to switch to a fully automatic operation. The socio-economic savings, in terms of lives saved and the reduction in the number of serious injuries as well as more efficient operation, is estimated at 300 million SEK per year. Moreover, efforts to reduce unauthorized track incursions give less downtime in the subway, which also gives an annual socio-economic savings of about 30 million SEK.

The report has raised strong interest in Sweden and has been debated on the opinion pages in Dagens Nyheter – one of the leading Swedish daily newspapers.